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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending together. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still