A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
