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Only two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible in which yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year went for Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added many Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. However no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.